Study on the early-warning platform of dairy industry damage in China

Abstract

-Industrial damage attaches great importance to all countries in the world. It is one of the most important duties of a government to ensure the healthy development of domestic industries. The objective of this study is to achieve informatization of China’s dairy industry. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and earlywarning system were combined to sort, analyze, store and process the indices of dairy products in trade. An early-warning model was used to develop the early-warning platform of dairy damage for real-time tracking of the dynamics development of dairy industry trade and for scientific and accurate determination and prediction of industry losses and damage extents caused by dumping. This practice will effectively protect the interest of the state, and protect China’s dairy industry from the infringement of unfair competition. Keywords-Dairy industry; industrial damage; early-warning model; China I. FOREWORD The Anti-dumping Regulations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has defined industry damage as the substantial damage, threat or retardation imposed by import goods to the same or similar domestic products that hampered the establishment of the industry. The China Anti-dumping―forcast methods of industry damage extents has defined industry damage as the threat, blocking and destruction brought by large-scale sales of import (export) goods to the development and establishment of domestic industries in international trades. Since China's entry into WTO, the trade of dairy has increased, and the impact of import of foreign products into China has been strengthening. Therefore, to construct an early-warning platform for diary industry damage and to forecast the potential crisis of dairy safety is necessary to minimize the loss and enhance the consumer confidence. In recent years, some researchers have studied on the construction of early-warning system of industry injury. On the basis of theoretical analysis and practical works, Liu et al. (2001) analyzed the early-warning factors by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Following the objective laws of industry injury, the principles of operability, comparability, early-warning, and scientificity, and the statistical indicators of the Bureau of Industry Injury Investigation, Ministry of Commerce of China, Chen et al. (2009) reconstructed a mathematical model to monitor industry damages, which validity and reliability was further confirmed by actual cases. Li et al (2009) established the food security early-warning index system to assess food security status and forecast food security damage, and built a systemic framework with timely policy adjustments. Cheng et al. (2010) constructed an industry safety early-warning system in Henan Province, and performed empirical researches with it. According to the overall goal of food development in China, Shao (2011) analyzed the law of food development in China over years, predicted the future comprehensive alarm limit index of food security by using practical scientific forecast model, and proposed the countermeasure to build food security early-warning system. Xu et al. (2011) analyzed the security status of aquatic products in Hebei Province, and proposed the basic ideas and frameworks of aquaculture safety warning subsystem. And Zhang et al. (2011) divided the North China area into 14 regions of early warning, and constructed early-warning models of earthquake situation index for each region. The earthquake early-warning criteria were determined, and a regional early warning index system was developed with AHP analysis and earthquake index calculation. Colors red, orange, yellow, and blue were used to grade the earthquake levels. To guarantee the healthy development of China's dairy industry, this study aims to analyze and construct a dairy industry injury platform in the viewpoints of early-warning system design, model development method, and early-warning platform processes. II. INDEX SYSTEM SET-UP OF THE EARLY-WARNING I MODEL OF CHINA'S DAIRY INDUSTRY INJURY The dairy industry early-warning indices were designed mainly based on the industrial damage theory and relevant provisions of the state, which were further combined with the dairy industry's own characteristics. A. Basis for Index System Design To select and determine a reasonable index system is the International Academic Workshop on Social Science (IAW-SC 2013) © 2013. The authors Published by Atlantis Press 407