Abstract
The contradiction between population and cultivated land has always been an urgent global problem, and one that is particularly prominent in China. Based on the spatial–temporal evolution of cultivated land, this paper discusses the human–land contradiction and its development trend. Then, according to the threshold of human–land contradiction and different protection objectives, the priority protection area of cultivated land was simulated. The results showed that: (1) the cellular automata (CA)–Markov model is suitable for the study area. The cultivated land in the study area increased at a rate of 4.40 sq km per year; (2) the spatial and temporal change in the cultivated land in Songpan was the largest. The center of gravity of cultivated land is moving to the northeast, and the moving rate is increasing year on year; (3) 90% of the study area was in the human–land coordination and the change in the ratio of accumulation and cultivation in some areas (such as Songpan) is increasing, making the human–land contradiction worse; (4) under a protection target of 25–100%, the priority protection area of cultivated land increased from 2.05 × 103 km2 to 3.46 × 103 km2, and the patch aggregation degree was strengthened. This study was of great significance for optimizing the distribution of cultivated land and promoting the sustainable development of land resources.
Highlights
In 2015, President Xi Jinping set the goal of eradicating poverty in China by 2020
Mountainous areas are rich in mineral resources, animal and plant resources, water resources, land resources and other natural resources, but the utilization rate of these resources is relatively low because their geographical location makes the material exchange between local villagers and the outside world difficult
With the employment of a land use map, the transition probability area matrix of probable land change between 1995 and 2005, the predefined 5×5 contiguity filter and the 2005 map as the initial land-cover map, the cellular automata (CA)–Markov model was executed to simulate the changes in the land in 2015
Summary
In 2015 (the thirteenth Five-Year Plan), President Xi Jinping set the goal of eradicating poverty in China by 2020. The key areas of poverty alleviation and development in China are rural areas, especially in remote mountainous areas. After the target of poverty alleviation was determined, these areas vigorously adopted new urban construction, developed tourism resources, and set up factories and other measures to promote local economic development. Many millions of China’s rural poor (as many as 55.75 million) have been lifted out of poverty, officially achieving the economic development goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way (The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan). The promotion of urbanization and industrialization has played a positive role in the economic development of mountainous environments, but these large-scale livelihood measures have inevitably caused an unreasonable allocation
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