Abstract

In accordance with the China Meteorological Administration definition, this study considered a weather process with a maximum surface temperature of ≥35°C for more than three consecutive days as a heatwave event. Based on a dataset of daily maximum temperatures from meteorological stations on the North China Plain, including ordinary and national basic/reference surface stations, the intensity-area-duration method was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of heatwave events on the North China Plain (1961–2017). Moreover, based on demographic data from the Statistical Yearbook and Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI) Population Scenario Database of the Austrian Institute for International Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), population exposure to heatwave events was also studied. The results showed that the frequency, intensity, and area of impact of heatwave events on the North China Plain initially decreased (becoming weaker and less extensive) and then increased (becoming stronger and more extensive). Similarly, the trend of population exposure to heatwave events initially decreased and then increased, and the central position of exposure initially moved southward and then returned northward. Population exposure in the eastern Taihang Mountains was found significantly higher than in the western Taihang Mountains. In relation to the change of population exposure to heatwave events on the North China Plain, the influence of climatic factors was found dominant with an absolute contribution rate of >75%. Except for 2011–2017, increase in population also increased the exposure to heatwaves, particularly in the first half of the study period. Interaction between climatic and population factors generally had less impact on population exposure than either climatic factors or population factors alone. This study demonstrated a method for assessing the impact of heatwave events on population exposure, which could form a scientific basis for the development of government policy regarding adaption to climate change.

Highlights

  • Climate change includes changes in mean climate and variation in weather extremes [1]

  • It can be seen that the decadal mean frequency of heatwave events on the North China Plain shows a significant initial trend of decrease followed by an increase

  • Based on the daily maximum temperature data, we found that changes in air temperature caused these changes in the frequency of occurrence of heatwave events

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Summary

Introduction

Climate change includes changes in mean climate and variation in weather extremes [1]. Because of the combined effects of human activities and natural factors, Earth’s climate has undergone significant change in terms of the primary features of warming and this change has shown an increasing trend in recent years [2, 3]. E trend has led to a wide range of climate anomalies, especially an increased frequency of occurrence of regional extreme high-temperature events [4]. In different regions of the world, the annual and daily maximum temperatures have both shown a significant upward trend since the latter part of the 20th century [6, 7]. The characteristics of high temperatures are complex. Significant positive trends in the frequency of occurrence of extreme maximum temperature events have

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