Study on the annual changing trend of Arctic Sea ice melting for merchant shipping

Abstract

The continuous melting of Arctic Sea ice has attracted increasing interest in the potential of navigation in the Arctic route. In summer, the salinity of the upper water body of the Arctic Ocean changes dramatically, causing more so-lar radiation to enter the sea water, thus increasing the melting rate of sea ice. Most existing studies used the sea ice concentration (SIC) to evaluate the sea ice condition along the route. Based on the historical sea ice data (including sea ice area) in Arctic waters, this study investigated the annual sea ice changing trend in Arctic waters, especially in summer, and identified the key Straits that have influence on the number of vessels traversing the NSR. The overall Arctic Sea ice area has shown a decreasing trend with large interannual variability in the past two decades. The navigable capacity of Sannikov Straitis is in general consistent with the overall ice change of Arctic waters. Nevertheless, the sea ice in Vilkitsky Strait fluctuates to a large degree with significant uncertainties.