Study on substitutable value of electric heating instead of coal heating in northern China under carbon constraints

Abstract

Northern China has long been puzzled by smog in winter. Electric heating, as a kind of clean heating method, has been promoted to replace coal-fired heating. However, owing to the power structure dominated by coal power in China, electric heating may cause more carbon emissions than that of coal-fired heating if the scale of the former exceeds relative limit. It is essential to study the electric heating area development limit to ensure carbon reduction compared with that of coal-fired heating. In this paper, based on the analysis of carbon emissions from coal-fired heating and electric heating, a calculation model for the substitutable value of electric heating instead of coal heating is established under carbon constraints. The model reveals that the substitutable value is related to the total heating area and the power structure. The Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network forecasting model is constructed to forecast total central heating area in urban areas of northern China from 2020 to 2035. The baseline scenario (BS), low carbon scenario (LCS) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELCS) are set to forecast the power structure in northern China. The results show that under the BS, the substitutable value of electric heating instead of coal heating can reach 15.058 billion square meters by 2035. Under the LCS and ELCS, the substitutable value will be even greater by 2035, 18.726 and 25.080 billion square meters, respectively. In addition, when the proportion of thermal power generation is less than 49.10%, electric heating per square meter can make less carbon emissions than coal-fired heating per square meter. The findings provide a reference for medium and long-term planning of large-scale electric heating in northern China.