Abstract

The coastal area of Japan has been damaged yearly by storm surges and flooding disasters in the past, including those associated with typhoons. In addition, the scale of damage is increasing rapidly due to the changing global climate and environment. As disasters due to storm surges become increasingly unpredictable, more measures should be taken to prevent serious damage and casualties. The Japanese government published a hazard map manual in 2015 and obligates the creation of a hazard map based on a parametric model as a measure to reduce high-scale storm surges. Parametric model (typhoon model) accounting for the topographical influences of the surroundings is essential for calculating the wind field of a typhoon. In particular, it is necessary to calculate the wind field using a parametric model in order to simulate a virtual typhoon (the largest typhoon) and to improve the reproducibility. Therefore, in this study, the aim was to establish a hazard map by assuming storm surges of the largest scale and to propose a parametric model that considers the changing shape of typhoons due to topography. The main objectives of this study were to analyze the characteristics of typhoons due to pass through Japan, to develop a parametric model using a combination of Holland’s and Myers’s models that is appropriate for the largest scale of typhoon, and to analyze the parameters of Holland’s model using grid point values (GPVs). Finally, we aimed to propose a method that considers the changing shape of typhoons due to topography. The modeling outcomes of tide levels and storm surge heights show that the reproduced results obtained by the analysis method proposed in this study are more accurate than those obtained using GPVs. In addition, the reproducibility of the proposed model was evaluated showing the high and excellent reproducibility of storm surge height according to the geographic characteristics.

Highlights

  • The intensities of natural disasters have increased significantly owing to abnormal climate and various environmental factors; natural disasters have occurred more frequently than before and have caused severe damages

  • The results indicate that, the maximum peak tidal level in the test bed is slightly underestimated with respect to the region, the phase depending on the time series is more consistent compared to that when using grid point values (GPVs) data (Figure 16)

  • Since an artificial wind field analysis is impossible, a parametric typhoon model that can analyze the wind field distribution changes according to regional topographic features is important

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Summary

Introduction

The intensities of natural disasters have increased significantly owing to abnormal climate and various environmental factors; natural disasters have occurred more frequently than before and have caused severe damages. Damage reduction measures against large-scale natural disasters are urgently required in this rapidly changing environment. The establishment of integrated measures is critical for mitigating the current natural disasters because they are characterized by their large scale, possibility of simultaneous occurrence of multiple disasters, and extremely high risk of danger (Kim et al 2015) [2]. Even if the cause of disaster is identical, disasters may appear differently depending on. 22 of of 15 danger (Kim et al 2015) [2]. Even if the cause of disaster is identical, disasters may the regional characteristics

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