Study on Stability Evaluation of Slope Failure Under a Shock of Earthquake by Possibility Linear Regressive Analysis

Abstract

To study on slope stability under a seismic motion, possibility linear regressive analysis based on fuzzy theory was applied to evaluation method of possibility of slope failure. Before the analysis, four kinds of topographical factors and three kinds of geological factors which had influence on slope failure were extracted and arranged from the existing literatures. And put these factors as input items, earthquake acceleration as output item, possibility linear regressive model was created. To create the model, 17 datas of slope failure by 1990 Niigataken-nanbu Earthquake were used. The fixed model showed that the major factors of slope failure under seismic motion were topographical features such as overhanging, shape, inclination and height of the slope, and geological features such as geological variaty, thickness of surface soil and situation of plain of discontinuity in ground were following factors. Then some datas of slope failure by 1978 Izuoshima-kinkai and 1987 Chibaken-toho-oki Earthquake were applied to the model. Consequentry, in the case that earthquake acceleration showed same range of that of the model, the model could make an accurate estimate. But it was a problem to be solved that the model didn't have a wide range of application.