Study on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Urban Agglomeration of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

Abstract

The industrial transfer of heavy industries such as non-metallic mineral manufacturing, metal smelting and manufacturing from the eastern coast of China to the central region is beneficial to the economic development of the central region on the one hand, but increases carbon emissions in the central region on the other hand. In February 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the “14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River”. This indicates that the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is an important region for implementing green development in the central area. The spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions and influencing factors in this region are the foundation for achieving carbon peaking and the carbon neutrality goal. This paper calculates the total carbon emissions of the cities in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and uses models such as spatial autocorrelation, geographically weighted regression, and Geodetector to explore the spatial–temporal pattern of carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) The total carbon emissions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration showed fluctuations during 2010–2020, and the carbon emission reduction effect is unstable. Additionally, the carbon emissions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River city cluster show obvious spatial variability, but the high carbon emission area is always concentrated in Wuhan, and this remains unchanged. (2) In 2010, 2014 and 2017, population size was the most important factor affecting carbon emission divergence, and in terms of interaction, the interaction between energy intensity and GDP and urbanization is the reason for the increasing carbon emissions. (3) The influence of population size on carbon emissions decreases from north to south, the influence of energy intensity on carbon emissions shows a spread from the most influential region in the northwest to the centre and then to the northeast, and the GDP per capita has little influence on the difference of carbon emissions spatial distribution.