Abstract
In allusion to the status quo of deficient in evaluation theory and methods on the social risk of dam-break, this paper established 24 index systems for the evaluation of dam-break social risk composed by the dam-break hazard intensity, accident probability, hazard-affected body inherent vulnerability and disaster relief capacity. The quantitative calculation formula has also been put forward for evaluation indexes. In line with the Delphi method, a judgment matrix on the social risk caused by dam-break has been constructed, and has obtained the weight of each index by virtue of analytic hierarchy process. The results show the internal friction angle, the downstream main ditch longitudinal gradient, the current dam height and the monitoring & forecasting capacity are the key indicators that affect the social risks of dam-break. The results of this study help to further enhance and improve the technical level of risk evaluation for the tailings pond.
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