Abstract
WOFOST (world food study) model had been successfully used in daily business of agro meteorological monitoring and yield forecasting in European Union, and also been widely used in crop growth process simulation and yield estimation all over the world. In this study, with the help of the rice growth observed data, the meteorological data at the same time and the rice planting regional planning data in Heilongjiang Province, the crop parameters for WOFOST model were improved. Based on the localization and regionalization of the model, the rice yield in county and region scale in Heilongjiang Province was simulated. In province scale, the WOFOST simulated yield was good, and the relative error between estimated yield and statistical yield from 2006 to 2013 were respectively 2.71%, 8.47%, 6.41%, –15.96%, 3.95%, 0.02%, –7.06%, 0.88%, four of which beyond ±5%. But in county scale, the correlation between WOFOST simulated and statistical yield was poor, and not passing the test of significance. In order to improve the precision, the trend yield calculated by the statistical yield and the WOFOST simulated yield were both used to build a comprehensive rice yield simulation model by the multiple linear regression method year by year from 2006 to 2013. Then the rice yield both in county and province scale in Heilongjiang Province was calculated by using the comprehensive model. In county scale, the comprehensive simulated yield and the statistical yield in county scale passed significant test of 0.01, and the correlation coefficients were respectively 0.715, 0.728, 0.829, 0.810, 0.888, 0.919, 0.868, 0.798, the R2 were respectively 0.511, 0.529, 0.686, 0.656, 0.789, 0.844, 0.753, 0.636. In province scale, the relative error between the estimated yield and statistical yield during 2006–2013 were respectively –1.72%, 2.12%, 3.02%, –2.45%, 1.27%, –0.89%, –0.38%, 1.96%. The comprehensive model had a good effect on improving the defects of fluctuation in individual year with a relative higher accuracy than that of only using WOFOST model, and could satisfy the application of rice yield estimation in large region.
Highlights
Rice yield estimation is very important for the rice production and food security in China
The model had been successfully used in daily business of agro meteorological monitoring and yield forecasting in European Union[2]
There were few reports about the estimating the rice yield both in county and province scale by using the comprehensive rice yield simulation model which was estimated by the trend yield calculated by the statistical yield and the WOFOST simulated yield
Summary
Rice is the largest cultivated area and highest total yield ration grain in China and plays an important role in the grain producing. WOFOST is a mechanism model, and can be used in crop growth monitoring and evaluating, crop yield forecasting, estimating the regional crop production, the influence assessment of disasters, and so on. Du Chunying[9] used the Heilongjiang Province rice growth observed data ( development period, biomass, grow variety, ripe type) and contemporary meteorological data, combined with local actual grow situation, divided the WOFOST model rice being suitable area, improved original growth parameter, carried out WOFOST model dynamic application on Heilongjiang Province rice growth simulation.Wang Yuguang[10] used the CGMS(Crop Growth Monitoring System) to forecast the crop production in Heilongjiang Province. The simulation results were verified both in county and province scale All these would provide the basis for regional crop yield estimation by using crop growth model
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