Study on regional population forecast and endowment insurance

Abstract

With the arrival of China's aging population, pension insurance system is also facing an unprecedented pressure. In this paper, through the population of each age stage of the Beijing city population prediction model is established, and by predicting the elderly population data, of endowment insurance and give advice. Due to the implementation of the family planning policy in the 1980s, leading to the birth rate is at the beginning of the reform and opening up, dropped sharply, and modern medicine is quite developed, also make life expectancy extended, so the development of aging population, showing rapid growth trend. It is expected that in 2020, the elderly population will reach 4 million 500 thousand, accounting for 20% of the total population of Beijing, will enter the depth of the aging stage. However, with the advent of the era of aging, pension insurance system is also facing unprecedented pressure. Therefore, this paper combined with the actual situation of Beijing City, Beijing city based on quantitative forecast of future population age structure and population change, mainly is to introduce the concept of population transfer, changes in population structure established transfer model to explore the age of the population, while the new population model using multiple regression method to establish a model of two phase. According to forecast, after the prediction of the Beijing port structure analysis, finally explores the influence of demographic change, and pension insurance are PAYG system and fund accumulation system coexist, expanding the pension system coverage, more people are added to the labor pension system, delay retirement, let alone two-child policy etc. advice. Such endowment insurance in order to face the huge challenge of population aging.