Study on Regional Differentiation of Quantitative and Qualitative Dividends of Population under Economic Growth Objectives Based on Panel Models and Nonparametric Kernel Estimation

Abstract

In this paper, on the basis of combing through the relevant studies and theories in the field of China's demographic dividend, provincial panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China for the period of 2010-2020 are selected. Firstly, China's demographic dividend and the current situation of economic development are analyzed, and then panel regression models and non-parametric kernel regression models are constructed to explore the relationship between the demographic dividend's impact on economic growth in terms of both population size and population quality, while long-term equilibrium and short-term volatility are taken into account to realize the analysis of large-scale panel data. The empirical results show that China's population quantity dividend is disappearing, while the population quality dividend is increasing. The population quality dividend has a significant positive impact on economic growth, while the population quantity dividend has a convergence in relatively less economically developed regions. However, both the population quantity dividend and the population quality dividend have significant differences among different provinces. Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper puts forward some suggestions, including optimizing the population structure, improving the population quality, and rationally allocating regional resources. It is hoped that the relevant government departments can seize the current opportunities and advantages, strive to realize the transformation of population size and the improvement of population quality, and actively develop the demographic dividend.