Abstract
This research uses Japan facsimile data in May-September of 2011-2015 in Fumeng and Zhangwu County of Fuxin, Liaoning, China as the site selection for high altitude NECV circulation background, using statistical and synoptic methods testing the combination of test and Analysis on Japanese numerical precipitation prediction and error. The prediction equation of cold vortex precipitation in the region is established by SPSS software. It is predicted whether the product predicts precipitation, water vapor condition and vertical velocity according to the Japanese numerical forecast. The results show that the fitting rate is 88% in the past 5 years, and the rate of cold vortex precipitation in the summer of 2016 is 89%.
Highlights
With the methods of our forecast upgrade, types of numerical prediction for the forecasters are more and more
The results show that the fitting rate is 88% in the past 5 years, and the rate of cold vortex precipitation in the summer of 2016 is 89%
11, 2017 of temperature forecasting; Zhang Guiying [3] based on the Japanese facsimile map and Naiman single station precipitation data, the study of its application in single station precipitation forecast; Xu Min [4] study found that: Japan numerical forecast products for ≥ 10.0 mm and ≥ 25.0 mm order precipitation forecast are higher 10.0% - 40.0% TS score than other models; Wu Jin [5] according to the precipitation produced the Japanese numerical forecast and other numerical prediction, combined with the product as the foundation, by the statistical analysis method of inverse distance interpolation downscaling, so as to establish a multi model integrated model of summer precipitation forecast in Beijing area
Summary
With the methods of our forecast upgrade, types of numerical prediction for the forecasters are more and more. There are few articles on the application and test of numerical forecasting in Japan under the background of northeast cold vortex, especially for Fuxin in Liaoning. To establish local cold vortex precipitation forecast equation with SPSS software
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