Study on photovoltaic power forecasting model based on peak sunshine hours and sunshine duration

Abstract

AbstractAccurate prediction of photovoltaic power generation is a critical technical problem for utilizing solar energy. Aiming at the problem that the model parameters are difficult to obtain in applying photovoltaic power prediction methods, this paper has used long‐term monitoring data of output power, various meteorological data, and solar irradiation intensity of photovoltaic modules. This paper establishes the functional relationship between the output power of photovoltaic modules and the irradiation intensity through Pearson correlation analysis. By deducing the distribution relationship of irradiation intensity, the prediction model of irradiation intensity based on peak sunshine hours and sunshine duration is constructed and based on 340 sites across the country 64 years peak sunshine hours and sunshine duration query database. In this work, the theoretical value of the prediction model on sunny days is close to the measured value (R2 = 0.918–0.985). The solar radiation intensity on rainy days is weak, and the prediction accuracy is low (R2 = 0.838–0.930). The relative errors between the sunshine duration and the peak sunshine hours in the database are less than 4.55% and 4.79%, respectively, under sunny conditions in each quarter, indicating that the accuracy of the database meets the actual needs.