Abstract
Objective: Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the 4-year incidence of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Chinese population was attempted. Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted in Shijingshan District Pingguoyuan Community (Beijing, China) from December 2011 to April 2012 among adults aged≥40 years not suffering from T2DM. Finally, 8 058 adults free of T2DM were included with a median duration of follow-up of 4 years. Participants were divided into a modeling group and verification group using simple random sampling at a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk models were applied to identify the independent risk predictors in the modeling group. A nomogram was constructed to predict the 4-year incidence of T2DM based on the results of multivariate analysis. The Concordance Index and calibration plots were used to evaluate the differentiation and calibration of the nomogram in both groups. Results: A total of 5 641 individuals were in the modeling group and 2 417 people were in the validation group, of which 265 and 106 had T2DM, respectively, at 4-year follow-up. In the modeling group, age (HR=1.349, 95%CI 1.011-1.800), body mass index (HR=1.347, 95%CI 1.038-1.746), hyperlipidemia (HR=1.504, 95%CI 1.133-1.996), fasting blood glucose (HR=4.189, 95%CI 3.010-5.830), 2-h blood glucose level according to the oral glucose tolerance test (HR=3.005, 95%CI 2.129-4.241), level of glycosylated hemoglobin (HR=3.162, 95%CI 2.283-4.380), and level of γ-glutamyl transferase (HR=1.920, 95%CI 1.385-2.661) were independent risk factors for T2DM. Validation of the nomogram revealed the Concordance Index of the modeling group and validation group to be 0.906 (95%CI 0.888-0.925) and 0.844 (95%CI 0.796-0.892), respectively. Calibration plots showed good calibration in both groups. Conclusion: These data suggest that our nomogram could be a simple and reliable tool for predicting the 4-year risk of developing T2DM in a high-risk Chinese population.
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