Study on Natural Gas Consumption Forecast and Influence Factors in China based on System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Based on the analysis of the structure and feedback relation of China’s natural gas supply-demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. The natural gas production is set as an input variable of the model, and is forecasted by the improved logistic model in solving method. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of China natural gas, we set seven scenarios by means of changing some of the parameters of the model. Results shows that the peak of natural gas production in China will occur in about 2038,and the production peak is expected to reach 2800 billion cubic meters. With the continuous development of the economy and the deepening of urbanization, the total demand of China natural gas will steadily increase year by year, and will reach an interval from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. What’s more, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas will be still the first large consumption sector of natural gas, followed by industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth,economic development still plays a dominant role in the promotion of natural gas demand growth, and the impact of urbanization on urban gas is obvious, the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.