Abstract
Since the 1980s,climate change in Xinjiang has been significant,and the air temperature and annual precipitation have been increased by 0.8℃~1.3℃ and 22%~33% respectively.In this study,the responses of monthly runoff volume of the Keriya River in winter and frozen earth in the Keriya River Basin located in the west Kunlun Mountains with high elevation and permafrost are calculated and analyzed using the monthly meteorological and hydrological data observed by the meteorological and hydrological stations in the study area during the period of 1957-2003.The purpose of this study is to reveal the change of monthly runoff volume of the Keriya River in winter and water translocation in frozen earth in the drainage basin using the autocorrelation and teleconnection analytic methods.The results reveal that the response of monthly runoff volume of the river in November and December to the temperature increase in winter is significant,and the monthly runoff volume is increased by 6%~8%.The correlation between the monthly runoff volumes in October and November is the best,and there is a nonlinear correlation between the monthly runoff volumes in December and next January,which is similar to that between the moisture content in frozen soil and ground temperature.Occurrence of the minimum discharge of the river is related to the increase of air temperature and ground temperature as well as the delay of freezing period from January to February.Furthermore,it is found that there is a reliable teleconnection between the discharges in September and next January,which is related the increase of glacial and snow melt water in September.The groundwater level in the oases in the lower reaches is raised along with the reduction of the thickness of frozen earth and the increase of runoff volume,which is advantageous for the entironment regeneration.Monthly runoff volume in December is the most sensitive factor to respond to the climate change and frozen earth change.
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