Study on Heat Wave and its Thermodynamic features over Bangladesh using Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWPM)

Abstract

In this study, an attempt has been made to simulate the Heat Wave conditions in temperature range of = 36oC and its associated thermodynamic features over Bangladesh from 19 may to 25 May, 2017, using Advanced Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) - version 4.0. The WRF model was run for 6 days on a single domain of 10 km. horizontal resolution, using 6 hourly GFS datasets from 0000 UTC of each starting day of the required events as initial and lateral boundary conditions. For simulation, Kessler Scheme (KF) for microphysics, Yonsei University Scheme (YUS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parametrization, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) for long wave radiation, and Dudhia Scheme (DS) for short wave radiation and Kain- Fritsch (KF) scheme for cumulus parametrization were used. The models have been analyzed numerically using several meteorological parameters such as Mean Sea Level Pressure, Relative Humidity, Temperature, Wind Pattern, Rainfall and Latent Heat, and the output is visualized by Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) and surfer. To validate the model performance, model-simulated values of Relative Humidity, Temperature (maximum) and Mean Sea Level Pressure were compared with observed data (Bangladesh Meteorological Department). From the analysis it is clear that the performance of the model is reasonably well to the observations, so that for the up-coming events for extreme temperature conditions the model can be used for the prediction which will bring social and economic benefits.