Study on flood control risk of flood control engineering system based on the clustering of measured data

Abstract

In this paper, the flood control system of Nanning is taken as the research object. Select calculating the flood control risk rate of reservoir combining with dikes of the urban flood control engineering system as the starting point; According to measured flood sequence, use the SAR(1) model to simulate the flooding; Comprehensively consider the hydrological uncertainty composed of reservoir flood and flood area, the cognitive uncertainty of the flood forecasting error and impact of the uncertainty of the operational management of the cascade reservoir when dispatching delays. The results show that the scientific forecasting and decision-making can reduce the impact of uncertainty factors and improve the flood control capacity of the flood control engineering system of Nanning, and combined dispatching of two reservoirs of Baise and Laokou can meet designed requirements of flood control safety of Nanning when once-in-two centuries flood occurs. With the increase of the flood, the flood risk correspondingly increases, but the risk rate is not large in a certain range. In paper, random combinations of reservoir and interval frequency flood and simulated flood is used to calculate the risk ratio of flood control system to establish a rapid and effective risk calculation method of urban flood control engineering system and the relationship between flood frequency and risk rate, which provides references for flood control system to combine with operation decision of flood control.