Abstract
Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention.
Highlights
As infrastructures of cities and towns, urban gas pipelines crossing streets and lanes are vulnerable to the third-party construction activities [1]
A failure evaluation of third-party damage for urban gas pipelines was conducted in this paper, combing analysis hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
Conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1. The fault tree which top event was the third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was systematically established in this paper, which contains 56 basic events
Summary
As infrastructures of cities and towns, urban gas pipelines crossing streets and lanes are vulnerable to the third-party construction activities [1]. According to the Study on Current Situation and Countermeasures of Urban Gas Safety Regulation System of China Gas Association, there were 1789 urban gas accidents from 2010 to 2012, and 608 of them were induced by the third-party constriction activities. The third-party damage has become a main cause of gas pipeline accidents, so it is necessary to study on the evaluation of the failure probability [3,4,5,6]. The third-party damage to urban gas pipeline is always caused by non-gas supply organization, not including natural calamities. In 2005, the United States gas group completed the gas industry research and found that nearly 35% serious incidents were caused by the third-party damage.
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