Study on Economic Data Forecasting Based on Hybrid Intelligent Model of Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Harris Hawks Optimization

Abstract

To use different models for forecasting economic data suitably, three main basic models (the grey system model, time series analysis model, and artificial neural network (ANN) model) are analyzed and compared comprehensively. Based on the analysis results of forecasting models, one new hybrid intelligent model based on the ANN model and Harris hawks optimization (HHO) has been proposed. In this hybrid model, HHO is used to select the hyperparameters of the ANN and also to optimize the linking weights and thresholds of the ANN. At last, by using four economic data cases including two simple data sets and two complex ones, the analysis of the basic models and the proposed hybrid model have been verified comprehensively. The results show that the grey system model can suitably analyze exponential data sequences, the time series analysis model can analyze random sequences, and the ANN model can be applied to any kind of data sequence. Moreover, when compared with the basic models, the new hybrid model can be suitably applied for both simple data sets and complex ones, and its forecasting performance is always very suitable. In comparison with other hybrid models, not only for computing accuracy but also for computing efficiency, the performance of the new hybrid model is the best. For the least initial parameters used in the new hybrid model, which can be determined easily and simply, the application of the new hybrid model is the most convenient too.