Study on Dynamic Evaluation of Sci-tech Journals Based on Time Series Model

Abstract

As science and technology continue to advance, sci-tech journals are developing rapidly, and the quality of these journals affects the development and progress of particular subjects. Whether sci-tech journals can be evaluated and predicted comprehensively and dynamically from multiple angles based on the current qualitative and quantitative evaluations of sci-tech journals is related to a rational adjustment of journal resource allocation and development planning. In this study, we propose a time series analysis task for the comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of sci-tech journals, construct a multivariate short-time multi-series time series dataset that contains 18 journal evaluation metrics, and build models based on machine learning and deep learning methods commonly used in the field of time series analysis to carry out training and testing experiments on the dataset. We compare and analyze the experimental results to confirm the generalizability of these methods for the comprehensive dynamic evaluation of journals and find the LSTM model built on our dataset produced the best performance (MSE: 0.00037, MAE: 0.01238, accuracy based on 80% confidence: 72.442%), laying the foundation for subsequent research on this task. In addition, the dataset constructed in this study can support research on the co-analysis of multiple short time series in the field of time series analysis.