Abstract
In order to reduce the impact of transmission line icing on the operation safety of power grid, this paper proposes a dual pre‐warning scheme based on improved residual multivariable gray model and Markov process. First, on the basis of analyzing the multivariable gray model (MGM) and the Markov process, the improved residual MGM‐Markov theory is expounded in detail. Second, a dual pre‐warning scheme of transmission line icing is proposed based on the improved residual MGM‐Markov theory, which takes into account both the predicted ice thickness and a three‐level pre‐warning based on the parameters of instantaneous wind speed, instantaneous wind direction, temperature, humidity, and rainfall monitored by an online monitoring device. Eventually, the scheme is applied to predict transmission line icing in a province of China. The error is less than 5%, which proves its accuracy and applicability. The scheme can predict future ice thickness accurately and give better guidance to the design of anti‐icing systems for transmission lines. © 2018 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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