Study on China's energy system resilience under the scenarios of long-term shortage of imported oil

Abstract

As a resource for human survival, energy is inevitably affected by the turbulence of the world. More than 70% of China's dependence on foreign oil poses a potential threat to its energy security. Generally speaking, short-term oil import shortages can be solved through strategic reserves, emergency production and other measures. However, the long-term import shortage must be addressed through energy transition, efficiency improvement and technological breakthroughs. To explore the ability of China's energy system (CES) to cope with the long-term oil import shortage, we established a CES resilience model under the 17 scenarios of long-term oil import shortage based on the resilience theory and system dynamics (SD). The research conclusions are: CES is relatively resilient and can better cope with long-term oil import shortages. Different measures have different mechanisms for restoring system performance, and the measures during the recovery period should be reasonably configured. Compared with the radical energy transition path, the resilience of CES under the steady energy transition path is about 10% higher.