Abstract
This paper takes the cultivated land in Sichuan Province as the research object based on the statistical data about cultivated land between 1995 and 2009, selects eight variable factors that affect change of the quantity of cultivated land, uses the principal component analysis to analyze the direct correlation between different factors, puts forward the two driving factors of economy and population and then sets up a binary regression model to make a quantitative analysis of the overall value of the principal component factors abstracted. The result shows that, the quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan Province has undergone a change process of slow reduction – sharp reduction – slow increase. Economic factor and population factor are the most important driving factors that affect change of quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan Province and they are both negatively correlated with change of cultivated land. The model shows that, the overall influences of these two types of driving forces are still constantly increasing, but influence of the economic driving force on cultivated land is weakened.
Highlights
This paper takes the cultivated land in Sichuan Province as the research object based on the statistical data about cultivated land between 1995 and 2009, selects eight variable factors that affect change of the quantity of cultivated land, uses the principal component analysis to analyze the direct correlation between different factors, puts forward the two driving factors of economy and population and sets up a binary regression model to make a quantitative analysis of the overall value of the principal component factors abstracted
Through an analysis of the dynamic change of quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan Province and the driving factors, this paper comes to the following conclusions: 1) The change of quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan Province presents a condition of slow reduction – sharp reduction –slow increase
2) Reduction of quantity of cultivated land is comprehensively affected by multiple factors, such as, population, economy, society and ecology, etc
Summary
In the 1990s, economy in Sichuan Province entered a high speed stage of development. With acceleration of the progress of urbanization, great changes have taken place in quantity of cultivated land. As a big agricultural province, the dynamic change in the allocation of cultivated land resources in Sichuan Province, without doubt, is the key to affect sustainable development of its own and even the entire western area. Study on rules and reasons for reduction of quantity of cultivated land will contribute to coordinate and alleviate contradictions between economic development and reduction of cultivated land in Sichuan Province and will help to predict the driving forces and factors in change of quantity of cultivated land in the future
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