Abstract
In this paper a blackout AC power flow model considering the probability of line stoppage in the process of power grid growth is given,and the self-organized critical state in the process of power grid growth is studied with the power grid upgrade rate is equal、greater or less than the load growth rate.Simulation results show that power grid upgrading rate must meet the system's load growth, or the probability of failure will be greatly increased with the grid exceed the critical state while the load growth faster than the grid upgrading in the long process of building the power grid. The model and simulation results presented in this paper provide a theoretical basis for the planning and construction of the power grid.
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