Abstract
In this study, in order to evaluate harbor tranquility and predict effective use of berth for site plan of port facilities, “time series simulation of berth utilization factor” is developed and the method of predicting berth operation is studied.The time series simulation of berth utilization factor developed here reproduces a series of work of arrival in port, arrival at berth, cargo handling, leave at berth, and leave in port for a ship, based on the condition of such as time series data on atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena, and possible work condition. It then outputs the ever-changing situation of operating ships, waiting time, rate of berth operation, amount of cargo, and soon. The influence of long-period, multi-directional waves should be considered to estimate waves within harbor and limits of cargo amount in this simulation. For the method of predicting berth use, its validity was shown through case study for a model site.
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