Abstract
建立了一种综合利用航天电子设备分系统可靠性信息和试验数据以及整机系统试验数据的Bayes可靠性评估方法. 该方法利用最大熵方法融合分系统可靠性信息, 推导了从分系统可靠性矩到系统可靠性矩的计算公式, 然后建立了基于继承因子<I>ρ</I>的混合<I>β</I>先验分布, 结合整机系统试验数据确定后验分布, 最后, 基于后验分布推断航天电子设备可靠性. 采用该方法对航天电子设备可靠性进行了评估, 当整机系统试验数据为240次时, 航天电子设备在置信水平0.70的情况下可靠度可达到0.9991, 所要求的整机系统试验次数比经典方法约降低了4/5.
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