Abstract

The frequent occurrence of drought events has changed the structure of the water supply-demand system, seriously hindering the sustainable development of society. This study aims to address the challenges of unclear impact of the system structure changes on water use desirability (WUD), as well as the regional water resources adaptive regulation. First, the structure of the water supply-demand system was analyzed based on the system theory. Then water supply priority (WSP) and water use compression (WUC) were considered to set combined regulation scenarios, which respectively characterize the structure of the water supply and demand systems. The MIKE BASIN/NAM water resources regulation coupling model was constructed to simulate the water use process under different scenarios. The desirability function approach was introduced to quantify the impact of system structure changes on WUD, and ultimately the adaptive regulation strategies were proposed with the goal of the highest WUD. Taking Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan, China as the study area, the validity of the model was verified, and the main results show that (1) t he optimal WSP in Chuxiong Prefecture was: urban domestic > rural domestic > industry > agriculture; (2) agriculture was identified as the most appropriate water user for compressing; (3) it was recommended that the adaptive regulation measure was to adjust the WSP in Dayao, Mouding and Wuding; and change the WUC in Yongren and Yao'an. In Nanhua, Chuxiong, Shuangbai and Lufeng, the adaptive regulation measure was to joint adjustment of WSP and WUC. These results clarify the impact of the system structure changes on WUD in Chuxiong Prefecture, identifying the optimal WSP and optimal WUC user under extreme drought, and propose water resources adaptive regulation suggestions for each county. In addition, the water resources adaptive regulation technology proposed in this study can provide scientific basis for water resources allocation under future climate change.

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