Study on a Hybrid Hydrological Forecasting Model SCE-GUH by Coupling SCE-UA Optimization Algorithm and General Unit Hydrograph

Abstract

Implementing real-time prediction and warning systems is an effective approach for mitigating flash flood disasters. However, there is still a challenge in improving the accuracy and reliability of flood prediction models. This study develops a hydrological prediction model named SCE-GUH, which combines the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona optimization algorithm with the general unit hydrograph routing method. Our aims were to investigate the applicability of the general unit hydrograph in runoff calculations and its performance in predicting flash flood events. Furthermore, we examined the influence of parameter variations in the general unit hydrograph on flood simulations and conducted a comparative analysis with the conventional Nash unit hydrograph. The research findings demonstrate that the utilization of the general unit hydrograph method can considerably decrease computational errors and enhance prediction accuracy. The flood peak detection rate was found to be 100% in all four study watersheds. The average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients were 0.83, 0.83, 0.84, and 0.87, while the corresponding coefficients of determination were 0.86, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.94, and the absolute errors of peak present time were 0.19 h, 0.40 h, 0.91 h, and 0.82 h, respectively. Moreover, the utilization of the general unit hydrograph method was found to significantly reduce the peak-to-current time difference, thereby enhancing simulation accuracy. Parameter variations have a substantial influence on peak flow characteristics. The SCE-GUH model, which incorporates the topographic and geomorphological features of the watershed along with the optimization algorithm, is capable of effectively characterizing the catchment properties of the watershed and offers valuable insights for enhancing the early warning and prediction of hydrological forecasting.