STUDY OF TWO YEARS EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TREND OF SWINE FLU (H1N1) CASES BY CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS IN TERTIARY CARE TEACHING HOSPITAL OF WESTERN INDIA

Abstract

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: To study region-wise monthly incidence, alteration in seasonal trend and geographical distribution of Swine Flu (H1N1) cases in district of western India for two years. After Ethics Committee approval, a cross-sectionalMATERIAL AND METHOD: study was carried out with analysis of two years' demographic prole, geographical distribution and seasonal variation of real time Reverse Transcription–Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) - H1N1 positive cases. Annual change in pattern of positive cases was analyzed by independent sample student's t - test (P < 0.05). Out of 3,524 Seasonal Flu cases investigated by Inuenza A (H1N1) RT-PCR, total 1,600RESULT: Seasonal Flu–positive cases were analyzed. On looking at Age-wise distribution of patients, during rst year, maximum number of Seasonal Flu positive cases was from age group of 1 to 10 years, while during next year, maximum number of cases was from age group of 51 to 60 years. During rst year of epidemic, incidence of 836.12 cases per 1,00,000 population per year was detected with peak during winter as compared to 121.49 cases per 1,00,000 population per year with peak during monsoon in second year of epidemic. DuringINTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: Epidemic of Seasonal Flu, Swine Flu (H1N1) positive cases got reduced annually, and seasonal pattern of H1N1 positive cases changed with peak during monsoon as compared to conventional winter peak. Overall change in seasonal trend, pediatric age distribution suggests need of in depth analysis of development of herd immunity, and risk factors involved for monsoon peak with alarming precaution by epidemic preparedness.