Abstract

In recent decades, a considerable increase in the number of tick-bitten humans has been recorded in the north of European Russia. At the same time, significant climatic changes, such as an increase in air temperature, were noticed in this region. The northern border of the ixodidae distribution area lies in the north of European Russia, therefore the analysis of the population dynamics is of particular interest regarding the possible impact of the climate changes. Unfortunately, in such a large territory field, studies on tick abundance are very difficult. In our study, the official statistics for the number of tick-bitten humans were used. This kind of statistical analysis has been conducted in the Russian Federation for many years, and can be used for the estimation of climate change impact on tick abundance. Statistical data on tick-bitten humans have been collected in three large regions for several decades. For the same regions, the average annual air temperature was calculated and modeled. An S-shaped distribution of the number of victims depending on the average annual air temperature was established, which can be described as “Verhulst’s law”, or logistic function. However, the development of the population does not depend on time, but on the temperature of the ambient air.

Highlights

  • Ixodidae ticks are known to be vectors of many pathogens that cause dangerous infectious diseases in humans, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, human granulocytic anaplasmosis and others

  • The population of ticks in in the zone of saturation in the Republic of Karelia was formed in the 1990s and early 2000s [20], while the zone of saturation in the Republic of Karelia was formed in the 1990s and early 2000s [20], while in in the Komi Republic it is being actively formed [12]

  • To estimate the dynamics of the tick population, long-term statistics provided by Rospotrebnadzor institutions, which recorded all medical care encounters in connection with tickbites, were used

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Summary

Introduction

Ixodidae ticks are known to be vectors of many pathogens that cause dangerous infectious diseases in humans, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, human granulocytic anaplasmosis and others. The results for separate individual areas where ticks were collected do not represent in a relevant manner the abundance of ixodidae over very large areas, such as the north of European Russia. The monitoring of tick abundance in Russia is very fragmentary [1,2,3]. The official statistics of the number of tick-bitten humans were used. This method was already used by other researchers [4,5]. Despite significant limitations (see Section 4 below), such an approach allows the identifying of “novel” tick habitats, where the flagging method is not efficient due to the small size of the tick population, while the state healthcare system adequately registers all complaints of tick-bitten humans.

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