Study of the Optimal Timing of Container Ship Orders Considering the Uncertain Shipping Environment

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to apply System Dynamics (SD) to analyze the optimal timing of container ship orders by considering the uncertain shipping environment. The collected monthly data for 12 years was obtained from the China seaborne container trade (CSCT) and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI). Containership fleet development and the prices of new and second-hand container ships were classified based on five container vessel sizes (January of 2004–December of 2015). The period of simulation for this study was from 2004 to 2020. To analyze the optimal timing for the container ship orders, container ship fleet development as a supply factor and the CSCT as a demand factor, both of which are components of CCFI, were simulated. After the first simulation, CCFI was simulated holistically. Based on the CCFI simulation results, it was possible to develop three optimal timing scenarios for ship order placement. The CCFI for October 2016 was in the initial entry status of a short-term rebound, which makes it possible for shipping companies to order ships without the risk of revenue loss. The second best time period is May 2018, before the CCFI recovery of May 2019. The third best time for ship orders is later in 2020 for a CCFI recovery after 2021.