Abstract
In the context of the new normal, the global economy is entering a deep adjustment period, and the driving forces of development are also constantly changing. As a result, China’s economy has also entered a “new normal” phase in which it is growing in a manageable and relatively balanced manner. In addition, the new normal characteristics of the power industry’s development in China are also very significant, and they affect the adaptability of traditional power forecasting methods. By analyzing the new characteristics of China’s economic development and the changing electricity demand in recent years, this paper quantitatively studied the effect of the national economy on the consumption of electricity. Meanwhile, a modified logistic model based on the change of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is constructed to make a reasonable prediction of the future power consumption in China. Subsequently, by calculating the elasticity of electricity consumption in the future, it is found that the coefficient decreases each year, which indicates that electricity consumption in China is following a new trend. Based on the research results, this paper proposes rational suggestions for China’s power development, and they are expected to provide references for the power planning and power industry layout in China.
Highlights
During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, influenced by the international economic situation and the adjustment of its domestic industrial structure, China’s economy began to enter a “new normal”
In the context of the new economic normal, in order to more accurately predict power consumption, this paper introduced the change of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate as one of the influencing factors based on the classical logistic prediction model, and it constructed a modified logistic model based on the change of the GDP growth rate
Because we adopt different solution methods, the power consumption modified logistic model mainly includes three mathematical models: the mathematical analytic model, the dynamic difference model, and the static difference model. e prediction accuracy is evaluated using empirical analyses that include China’s actual electricity consumption data from 2000 to 2018. e conclusions are as follows: (1) e growth of electricity consumption has its own development law, which mainly depends on its inherent growth rate, the saturation value that the market can absorb, and the market environment at that time
Summary
During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, influenced by the international economic situation and the adjustment of its domestic industrial structure, China’s economy began to enter a “new normal”. Economic transformation and supply-side structural reforms have reduced the proportion of electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries. Together, these observations indicate that China’s electric power has begun to enter a new normal [1]. E new normal state of electric power is mainly reflected in the deceleration in the growth of electricity consumption in throughout Chinese society, the negative growth in electricity consumption in secondary industry for the first time, and the rapid optimization and upgrading of the power consumption structure [2]. To compensate for the shortcomings of traditional methods, this paper reanalyzes the historical characteristics of China’s electric power consumption based on China’s current economic development, and it studies the degree of influence of the national economy on power consumption, which will allow us to make a reasonable prediction of the power consumption
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