Study of the abatement options available to reduce carbon emissions from Australian international flights

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn 2012, 14 airlines emitted a combined total of 13.1 Mt of CO2 while flying 72% of the international passengers into and out of Australia. In the Asia-Pacific region, passengers and cargo traffic are predicted to grow at 6% and 5% per annum respectively from 2013 to 2033. The International Air Transport Association has committed to an average fuel efficiency improvement of 1.5% from 2009 to 2020, carbon-neutral growth from 2020, and 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. To develop policies for reducing aircraft emissions, policy makers need to consider the effectiveness of abatement options used to curb the growth in emissions. In this study, five scenarios were developed to evaluate abatement options that have been or will be implemented by airlines flying on Australian international routes. Analysis reveals that by acquiring more efficient aircraft and increasing the average number of passengers per flight by 10%, 15.6 Mt and 29.2 Mt of CO2 would likely be emitted in 2020 and 2033 respectively, with CO2 emissions increasing at 6.1% per annum and CO2 efficiency dropping at 1.6% per annum. To achieve carbon-neutral growth after 2020, additional abatement options will be required to reduce CO2 emissions by a further 13.6 Mt (i.e., 46.6%) in 2033.