Study of prognostic factors in gastric cancer: Application of a cox model and logistic regression

Abstract

Introduction: Gastric cancer has a poor prognosis. It is the fifth most common cancer in terms of incidence and the fourth most common cancer in terms of mortality world wide. The aim of our study is to identify the clinical and pathological factors associated with survival and predictive of death. Method: Our study included 262 patients over a 13-year periodfrom 2007 to 2020 at Aristide Le Dantec Hospital in Senegal and Conakry Hospital in Guinea. The survival period was established from one month after treatment to the date of death or last news. We first used the Cox proportional hazard model to identify independent factors associated with survival. Then we applied logistic regression to these factors to develop the prognostic equation. Results: The overall survival at 6 months, 1 year and 5 years after treatment was respectively 74%, 57%, 38%. The probability of occurrence of death after 5 years can be estimated with 93\% accuracy, by: log (π_i / (1 - π_i)) = -19,983 + 2,119* Métastases + 1,268* Ulcère gastrique + 1,100* Tabac + 37,646* Epigastralgie + 37,563* Cardiopathie + 37,220*Mucineux. Conclusion: Our approach contributes to determine the impact of clinical and pathological factors on the survival of patients and the eventual occurrence of death related to stomach cancer.