Study of Potential Demand Confidence Index in Dalian Residential Market

Abstract

Based on study of the sentiment index of consumers, the questionnaires of the potential demand in Dalian residential market were designed in order to quantify the consumers’ confidence in purchasing houses and predict the trend of real estate market. The surveys were both conducted in Fall Real Estate Trade Fair in 2011 and Spring Real Estate Trade Fair in 2012. The calculating method of the consumers’ confident index is established, through verifying the credibility and validity of the questionnaires. The research shows that there is no heavy potential demands in Dalian residential market, and most prospective consumers keep a wait and see attitude towards the market. The results also indicate that the cautious policies of investment and the macro-control of the rapid rising house price should be put into practice by the government and the house developing businessmen. QUESTIONNAIRES AND FIELD SURVEY Survey subjects and survey objectives. The survey subjects are general people of non- real estate field, aged over 20. Due to the regional property of the market, the surveys were specially conducted in the market of Dalian. The survey subjects were randomly chosen in the crowds who either visited Dalian Housing Trade Fair in the fall of 2011 (Fall Trade Fair ) or visited the Dalian Housing Trade Fair in the spring of 2012 (Spring Trade Fair ). Questionnaires. The questionnaires of the Fall Trade Fair contains 10 questions. They respectively focus on the house price, house rent, the development of the residential market, the climate of the economy, the status of the consumers’ incomes (the ability to purchase houses). The content of each item in the questionnaire(see Table 1). T11 was also put forward in the Spring Trade Fair, besides the ten questions above. T11 is as the follows: T11 The factors that probably affect the purchasing of the houses are (multiple choice): A. the trend of the house prices; B. the environment of the investment; C. the construction of the public houses for rent in Dalian; D. the perfection of the social security system(endowment insurance, medical insurance, education); E. the ban on over purchase; F. the ratio of the initial purchase; G. individual income status. T11 was not involved in the calculation of the potential confidence index. And it is only used in analyzing the data.