Study of Phase Changes in Operational Risk for Trucks

Abstract

This study concerns the management of operational risk in truck transport using the reliability theory of risks. In this regard, the risk analysis of changes in the vehicle unavailability represents an important topic. In this study, the authors present their own method for analysing the phase changes in risk corresponding to successive sections (phases) of vehicle mileage. The presented risk analysis method is based on an integrated assessment of losses associated with the costs of incidental repairs and losses caused by lost income during vehicle downtime. This includes the following: assessment of differences in average risk and differences in the coefficient of variation in the time series of vehicle mileage phases, indicating the outliers and extremes of phase risk, identifying their physical causes and testing the statistical significance of phase risk differences. The proposed method is described mathematically and verified experimentally based on the operational data concerning trucks from two selected brands (20 trucks from each brand). We show that the method can be used to predict the continuity of transport services in the short term (one-year horizon). The method could also be useful to compare vehicles of different brands in the context of their sensitivity to operational risks.