Study of Factors Influencing U.S. Treasury Yields Based on Time Series Linear Regression Models

Abstract

Studying the impact of changes in the savings rate on fluctuations in US Treasuries is significant. This paper conducts a linear regression analysis of the yield of US Treasuries, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and US savings rate over the past decade, aiming to explore their relationships and influences. Based on economic data from the United States, a model is constructed, which is further applied to data from the European Union to validate its applicability and accuracy across different economic systems and to investigate the impact of disparities in data between different regions on the results. After analyzing the data and obtaining results, various types of economic data from the European Union are used as model variables for testing. Following a correlation analysis of the data, the conclusion is drawn that even different regions or countries exhibit varying positive or negative correlations between their economic data and US Treasury yield fluctuations. This paper delves into the analysis and comparison of the interaction between US Treasury yields and economic indicators of both the United States and the European Union, exploring whether these interactions manifest differently in the two distinct economic systems.