Study of extreme wet and dry periods in Cyprus using climatic indices

Abstract

Climate change affects the precipitation regime globally, including its extreme values, as well as the frequency of the corresponding extreme events. Generally, observations and simulations with climate models show that a warming climate typically results in an intensification of precipitation extremes. An analysis of the daily precipitation database for the island of Cyprus is performed, using a period of 50years. A number of climatic indices for precipitation are calculated, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), using the dense network of rain gauges of the Cyprus Department of Meteorology. All parameters are calculated for the recent 30-year period 1981–2010 (considered by the World Meteorological Οrganization as the new current standard period); the results are compared with those of the period 1961–1990 (considered by the World Meteorological Organization as the reference period), with a view to examine the differences in the occurrence of wet and dry periods. The results show an increase in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events and a slight decrease in extreme drought events.