Abstract

Background: Purulia is a malaria-prone district in West Bengal, India, with approximately half of the jurisdictional blocks defined as malaria endemic. Methods: We examined the malaria incidence in each block of the district of Purulia for the period between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2020. Per the Annual Parasite Incidence (API), 20 blocks of Purulia district were assigned to four different categories (0-3) and mapped using ArcGIS software version 10.8. An exponential decay model was fitted to forecast the trend of malaria cases for each block of the district for the 2021-2025 timeline. Findings: There was a sharp decrease in total malaria cases and API from 2016 to 2020. Plasmodium vivax (Pv) cases were decreased by 96.43%, Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) by 90.34%, and mixed infection cases by 92.78%. The majority of cases (72.63%) were found in the 15 year and older age group. Males were more prone to malaria (60.09%) than females. Malaria was highly prevalent among Scheduled Tribes (ST) (48.44%). Six blocks were reported in Category 3 (high risk) and none in Category 0 (no risk) in 2016 while no blocks were determined to be in Category 3 and three blocks were in Category 0 in 2020. The exponential decay model prediction is oriented towards gaining malaria-free status in thirteen blocks of the Purulia district by 2025. Interpretation: By efficiently diagnosing malaria, implementing a GIS system to track malaria incidences, fair usage of Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), and conducting effective awareness campaigns, malaria control could be possible. Nevertheless, consistent funding is needed to avoid reappearance and sustain eradication goals. Funding Information: None. Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was permitted by Zilla Swasthya Bhawan, Purulia, Govt. of West Bengal (Memo No. 2041; Dated: 03.11.2020).

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