Abstract
Dynamic poverty analysis distinguishes two kind of poverty: chronic and transient poverty. Chronic poverty is long term poverty while transient poverty is short term poverty. Theoretically, these two kind of poverty need different policy. Chronic poverty needs human capital development whereas transient poverty needs social safety net. This study aims to estimate chronic and transient poverty in East Java and to analyze its determinants. This research used Component Approach to estimate chronic and transient poverty. Tobit regression was employed to analyze its determinants. This study utilized Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (Social Economic National Survey of Indonesia) year 2008 and year 2010. The result of this study indicates that poverty in East Java is largely comprised of chronic poverty. Chronic component of poverty is 76 percent and transient component of poverty is 24 percent. The high chronic component of poverty is found in regency of, Malang, Kediri, Sumenep, and Pasuruan. The regression result indicates that chronic and transient poverty are influenced by education of household head, gender of household head, access to credit and health insurance ownership. 
 JEL Classification: C01, I32, I38, J24,
Highlights
Analisis kemiskinan dinamis membedakan dua jenis kemiskinan: kemiskinan kronis dan kemiskinan sementara
Philip dan Rayhan (2004) mengungkapkan bahwa: Relative poverty compares the lowest segment of a population with upper segments, usually measured in income quintiles or deciles, may be quantified by concentrating on a small number of key indicators such as the share, in national wealth or income, possessed by 20% of the poorest inhabitantns of a country
Makalah disampaikan dalam Seminar pada Pusat Studi Kependudukan dan Kebijakan Universitas Gadjah Mada
Summary
Bermula dari publikasi Rowntree pada tahun 1901 (Philip & Rayhan, 2004) yang mendefinisikan kemiskinan sebagai ketidakmampuan pemenuhan kebutuhan nutrisi minimal manusia. Pada tahun 1970-an, Runciman dan Towndsend membuat definisi baru kemiskinan tidak hanya sebagai kegagalan pemenuhan nutrisi minimal tetapi juga kegagalan dalam meningkatkan pemerataan pendapatan dalam masyarakat (Philip & Rayhan, 2004). Menurut Chambers (1987) dalam Suryono (2001) dan Maxwell (1999) menyatakan bahwa inti dari kemiskinan sebenarnya terletak pada apa yang disebut deprivation trap. Pendekatan paling luas yang digunakan untuk mengartikan kemiskinan adalah pendekatan yang dikemukakan oleh Sen (1987) yaitu key capabilities seseorang. Kondisi ini dikarenakan secara spesifik, Yaqub (2003) menyatakan bahwa kemiskinan dengan dimensi materi seperti moneter berupa pendapatan ataupun konsumsi masih menjadi alasan utama dalam sebuah analisis kemiskinan dinamis karena keterbatasan data panel di negara sedang berkembang (NSB)
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