Study of China's optimal solar photovoltaic power development path to 2050

Abstract

In recent years, China's solar photovoltaic (PV) power has developed rapidly and has been given priority in the national energy strategy. This study constructs an energy-economy-environment integrated model by way of a dynamic programming approach to explore China's solar PV power optimal development path during the period 2018–2050 from the perspective of minimum cost. This study has considered the role of technological progress in studying the development and cost changes of solar PV power, and it also takes into account the restraints of potential affecting factors such as the resource potential, GDP growth, emission regulation schemes, and grid absorptive capacity. After combining the results of the sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses, we reach the following conclusions. (1) The learning effect of technological progress is stronger than most studies, and technological progress plays an important role in cost reduction. (2) The factors concerning the construction costs, such as the GDP growth rate and investment ratio, have only a limited impact on solar PV power development, but the learning rate, grid absorptive capacity, and carbon permit price are critical factors affecting the development path in the later period. (3) In the optimistic scenario, the goal is easy to achieve, but under the pessimistic scenario, although the goal can be achieved, it slightly difficult to do so.