Study of a Prediction Model for Forest Fire-Initial Burnt Area on Meteorological Factors

Abstract

By using differential equations the initial area prediction model for forest fire based on meteorological factors was built. And the meteorological factors' period of forest fires was statistically analyzed in frigid temperate coniferous forest region and temperate broadleaved and conifer mixed forest region, as well as the range of average wind speed, relative humidity, and mean temperature and so on. The results indicate that forest fires occurred mainly from April to June and in October in frigid temperate coniferous forest region. While in temperate broadleaved and conifer mixed forest region, they occur mainly from March to June and in October. This model built in the paper has an average precision of 68.2%, which means that it can be used to predict the fire intensity after forest fires precisely.