Study and Application on Risk Assessment Method of Coal Worker Pneumoconiosis Based on Logistic Regression Model

Abstract

To research the risk assessment method of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis caused by coal dust exposure, predict the incidence of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis, and provide technical basis for occupational risk management. Coal-workers of a coal transportation workshop of a heat power station were chosen as objectives. The incidence of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis was predicted by logistic non-linear regression model using the concentrations of the respirable coal dust that the workers exposed to and their exposure durations. Furthermore, a practical table of the relationship between the incidence probability of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis and exposure situation was created by using R programming language. It was found that if these coal workers exposed to the respirable coal dust of the current concentration for 5 or 10 years, the risk of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis would be between 10−5 and 10−6, and for 20 or 30 years, it would be between 10−3 and 10−2. Assuming that they exposed to coal dust of this concentration for 30 years, the risk would exceed the acceptable risk level and measures should be taken. In this study, a practical quantitative approach was proposed to assess the risk of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis caused by coal dust exposure. Based on the results, it showed that as the risk management target, the concentration and exposure duration should be well controlled to reduce the risk of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis. This method could be applied in evaluations of occupational disease hazard in construction projects and help to control and manage the risk of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis.