Studies on the improvement of modelled solar radiation and the attenuation effect of aerosol using the WRF-Solar model with satellite-based AOD data over north China

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation will become one of the main energy sources to achieve goals of carbon peak and carbon-neutral in China in the future. However, serious haze events have occurred frequently due to massive anthropogenic emissions in autumn and winter in China and resulted in a significant reduction of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. In this study, we conducted modifications to modelled solar radiation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Solar model by implementing the satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) data into the model. The satellite-based AOD data have a higher spatial resolution and better accuracy. The studies were performed during the heavy haze period in the winter of 2016/2017 over North China (NC). Comparison with observations shows that the temporal-spatial variations of satellite-based AOD are consistent with those of AERONET and surface PM2.5 concentration, and satellite-based AOD at different sites or some months is slightly underestimated. Satellite-based AOD and surface PM2.5 concentrations in most of the southern areas of NC are significantly larger than in the northern parts. Simulated errors of Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) are reduced remarkably compared with those excluding the AOD data, especially in regions of the BTH (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei province), west of Shandong province, and north of Henan province. All RMSE and MAE of simulated GHI under three types of weather conditions declined by more than 20%, and 37%, respectively. Modelled errors of GHI on all-sky and cloudy-sky days are larger than those on clear-sky days due to the complicated aerosol-cloud-radiation interaction and simulated bias of cloud. Reductions of GHI caused by aerosols fall in between -140～-20 W m−2, and the spatial distribution is more refined and perform well compared to observations. Our results show that direct application of the satellite-based AOD data into the WRF-Solar model is very effective for improving the simulation of solar radiation and investigating the attenuation effect of solar radiation caused by aerosol in winter.