Studies on Parameters Affecting Temperature of Liquid Steel and Prediction Using Modified AdaBoost.RT Algorithm Ensemble Extreme Learning Machine

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The present work aimed to develop a predictive model for the end temperature of liquid steel in advance to support the smooth functioning of a vacuum tank degasser (VTD). An ensemble model that combines extreme learning machine (ELM) with a self-adaptive AdaBoost.RT algorithm was established for the regression problem. Based on analyzing the energy equilibrium of the VTD system, the factors were determined for predicting the end temperature of liquid steel. To establish a hybrid ensemble prediction model, an ELM algorithm was selected as the ensemble predictor due to its strong performance and robustness, and a modification of the AdaBoost.RT algorithm is proposed to overcome the drawback of the original AdaBoost.RT by embedding statistical theory to dynamically self-adjust the threshold value. For efficient VTD operations, an ensemble model that combines ELM with the self-adaptive AdaBoost.RT algorithm was established to model the end temperature of liquid steel. The proposed approach was analyzed and validated on actual production data derived from a steelmaking workshop in Baosteel. The experimental results reveal that the proposed model can improve the generalization performance, and the accuracy of the model is feasible for the secondary steel refining process. In addition, a polynomial equation is obtained from the ensemble predictive model for calculating the value of the end temperature. The predicted results are in good agreement with the actual data with <1.7% error.