Abstract
Due to the nature of randomness of wind power, an approach based on multi-state modeling wind power is proposed for power system probabilistic production simulation. The traditional probabilistic production simulation is used to deal with the optimal allocation and calculation problems of the thermal units, and it's not applicable to the system including wind power any more. The comprehensive model of wind power output is established on the factors of wind speed and the random output of wind generators, and take the wind turbine as a conventional unit in multi-derating states. Considering with the Forced Outage Rate(FOR) of the units, use the improved model to calculate the grid reliablility indicators and the assessment of wind power in probabilistic production simulation. Further, numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the validity of the methodology. It is shown that the presented model can provide a basis for the further research for evaluating benefits of the wind farm. The proposed approach can play an important role in wind power assessment and planning.
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