Abstract
Trends of rice, wheat, maize, sorghum (jowar) and pearl millet (bazra) yields of India are studied in relation to water irrigation for the period 1951 to 2012. These crop yields have been subjected to correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), obtained from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (for 1982 to 2000) and Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra (for 2001 to 2012) to understand the linear association among them. Crop products and food inadequacy in percentage along with the average food production rate, available from FAO have been used in the present study. The present study mainly focuses on the estimation of return values of crop yields for different periods using Gumbell Extreme Value analysis. The present study is very important in the context of increased global food demands by 2050 where in many studies report that food production to be doubled by the year 2050 to meet the demands of increasing population. The main results of the study are: (i) significant positive correlations between NDVI and the crop yields during the study period; (ii) rice, maize and jowar yields did not show the required incremental rate while wheat and bajra yields are able to meet the expectations by the 2050. More efforts require to an increase of additional ~8% in the rice yields as the present growth is only ~12% and ought to be enhanced to ~20%.
Highlights
Crop yields are sensitive to climate variations
It is reported that the crop yields/production of India are well correlated with the Indian monsoon rainfall [7,8] and are linked to the global teleconnections such as El Niño [9,10]
Adejuwon [11], studied the food crop production in Nigeria in relation to the climate variability and reported that the monthly rainfall changes have an impact on food production
Summary
Crop yields are sensitive to climate variations Adejuwon [11], studied the food crop production in Nigeria in relation to the climate variability and reported that the monthly rainfall changes have an impact on food production. It is reported that the rice-producing countries such as India and China will experience a double CO2 scenario which leads to enhancement of photosynthesis, but at the same time will causes a rise in temperature by more than 2 ◦C [16]. At this juncture, several researchers have done analysis on the rate of increment on global crop yields to meet the projected population’s food demand.
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