Abstract
Policy regarding the size of cities is an important component of China’s urban policy prescription. We used a curvilinear regression model in this study to identify the optimal function and conducted curve panel data regression analysis on the panel data of the benefits of the economy, ecosystem services, and city size in China. In doing so, we obtained the regression relationship between city size and the benefits of the economy, environment, and resources of a city. Our main findings are as follows: (1) city size is not the most important factor determining a city’s benefits. However, there is a significant difference in the average city benefit between cities of various sizes; (2) city per capita GDP increase exhibited an inverted-N-shaped relationship with increasing city size, initially decreasing but subsequently increasing. The city size corresponding to the maximum value was usually higher than or close to the actual city size. Thus, it can be concluded that when a city’s population is more than 1 million, its per capita output increases; (3) a city’s resource services benefits all exhibited the trend of improving with increasing city size. This trend was particularly pronounced among cities with a population of less than 1 million; and (4) a city’s environmental services benefits exhibited an inverted-U-shaped relationship with city size, initially increasing but subsequently decreasing.
Highlights
In March 2014, China introduced new strategic urban planning guidelines mandating “full liberalization of the household registration restraints in townships and small cities, gradual liberalization of the restraints in cities with a population of 0.5–1 million, and strategic liberalization of the restraints in big cities with a population of 3–5 million, and strategic determination of the conditions of household registration in the big cities, and strict control the urban population in large cities with a population of over 5 million.” The new urban planning guidelines revived the discussion in China on urban size policy and its economic and ecosystem benefits.China has experienced rapid urbanization in the last few years
Based on the models used in previous studies, in this study population growth and economic benefits were screened through linear regression to determine the most realistic regression model, the regression analysis using the panel data was conducted to estimate the coefficients for the related indicators and to determine the optimal range of city size and the problems that exist
City size corresponding to the maximum of a city’s per capita output was maintained above 10 million, and only in the last two years did some cities reach the scale corresponding to the theoretical maximum value. These results demonstrate that city size did not achieve optimal economy for a long time, and only in the last two years did some mega-cities begin to reap optimal economic benefits
Summary
In March 2014, China introduced new strategic urban planning guidelines mandating “full liberalization of the household registration restraints in townships and small cities, gradual liberalization of the restraints in cities with a population of 0.5–1 million, and strategic liberalization of the restraints in big cities with a population of 3–5 million, and strategic determination of the conditions of household registration in the big cities, and strict control the urban population in large cities with a population of over 5 million.” The new urban planning guidelines revived the discussion in China on urban size policy and its economic and ecosystem benefits. Much of the research has evaluated the economic or ecosystem services benefits of city size using description or model methods and has concluded on the individual optimal range of the scale, whereas previous studies on the relationship between city size and resources and environmental benefits were largely confined to an empirical model, but lacked rigorous statistical analysis. Based on the models used in previous studies, in this study population growth and economic benefits were screened through linear regression to determine the most realistic regression model, the regression analysis using the panel data was conducted to estimate the coefficients for the related indicators and to determine the optimal range of city size and the problems that exist. The main conclusions and new discoveries made in this study, as well as appropriate recommendations for Chinese urbanization policy based on our findings, will be presented
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